NYISO's Q3 2026 STAR and Draft 2026 RNA Identify Short-Term Relief and a Long-Term Gap

The NYISO issued its 2026 Q3 Short-Term Assessment of Reliability (STAR) on October 13. The report reverses the central finding of the Q2 assessment. It also points to the draft 2026 Reliability Needs Assessment (RNA), which identifies new reliability needs beginning in 2032.

The Q2 STAR Report identified reliability needs driven in part by the status of the Champlain Hudson Power Express (CHPE). Although CHPE entered commercial operation in May 2026, the NYISO excluded it from the Q2 assessment because it had not yet demonstrated its “planned power capability.” On October 2, the NYISO notified stakeholders that CHPE had met that threshold. With CHPE included in the Q3 STAR, the Lower Hudson Valley Near-Term Reliability Need identified in the Q1 and Q2 STARs is no longer observed, and the solution solicitation issued on August 20 has been withdrawn.

The Q3 STAR also clarifies the NYISO’s determination regarding the deactivation of the Danskammer Units 1-4, which may now enter a Mothball Outage. Termination of the associated Interim Service Provider rate, which was developed in response to the prior STAR reports, requires at least 60 days prior notice from the NYISO.

Near-Term Findings

The Q3 STAR Report does not identify new Reliability Needs. Only one generator, ADK Resource Recovery, initiated a deactivation assessment request in Q3, and neither the NYISO nor National Grid identified a Generator Deactivation Reliability Need associated with its retirement. The unit may retire on or after December 31, 2026.

The NYISO reports that reliability margins in the Lower Hudson Valley, New York City, and Long Island remain sufficient throughout the study period, while characterizing those margins as continuing to narrow. Conditions on Long Island improved after the Office of the State Comptroller approved three LIPA capacity purchase agreements. Those agreements are with Salem Harbor, Millennium Power, and Berkshire Power respectively, and run through April 2032. The Q2 STAR had placed the Long Island margin at 36 MW in summer 2027, and margins stay narrow until Propel NY Energy enters service.

Both the Q3 STAR and the 2026 RNA identify a new stability issue. Analysis indicates that the Fitzpatrick nuclear generating unit may lose synchronism following a fault at the Scriba 345 kV station. The NYISO observes the condition most prominently in spring midday, light load conditions with high solar output. It may emerge as early as spring 2027 and persists throughout the planning horizon. Interim operating measures have been identified, and the NYISO will continue evaluating the issue in future assessments.

Beyond the Five-Year Horizon

The draft RNA addresses the longer-term picture and identifies three actionable Reliability Needs.

• Statewide resource adequacy: Begins in 2033 at 225 MW and grows to more than 1,850 MW by 2036.
• New York City transmission security: Begins in 2032 at approximately 400 MW over 7 hours and grows to approximately 1,850 MW over 15 consecutive hours by 2036.
• Lower Hudson Valley transmission security: Begins in 2032 at approximately 130 MW over 2 hours and grows to approximately 1,950 MW over 7 consecutive hours by 2036.

The draft RNA states that the statewide resource adequacy need is not primarily driven by internal transmission constraints and cannot be addressed through transmission solutions. It finds that maintaining a reliable grid will require more than 1,850 MW of new generation, appropriately located and with the necessary operating characteristics, coupled with transmission capability sufficient to deliver those resources.

The seasonal composition of risk also shifts over the horizon. By 2036 the draft RNA attributes approximately 40% of reliability risk to winter, with New York City showing a winter deficiency of approximately 800 MW across sixteen consecutive hours. Reliance on emergency operating procedures grows from roughly 3.5 days per year in 2027 to roughly 21 days per year by 2036. The NYISO notes that emergency actions taken to date in 2026 have already exceeded that 3.5 day projection. Based on NYISO’s experience and planning assumptions, Hydro Quebec imports over CHPE are not expected to support New York winter reliability needs.

Two of the biggest assumptions behind the RNA’s 2032 findings are retirements that have not happened yet. On April 15, 2026 the NYISO issued a letter to the NYS DEC designating the Gowanus 2 & 3 and Narrows 1 & 2 generators as needed to address ongoing reliability needs until May 1, 2029. These units were subject to more stringent emissions rules under the NYS DEC’s “Peaker Rule” and had submitted deactivation notifications. The NYISO states in the draft RNA that extending the operation of these generators through May 1, 2029 “helps alleviate the identified deficiencies, but without additional supply resources, reliability needs will likely develop at the end of the five-year horizon or shortly after it. Subsequently, on April 16, 2026, AlphaGen withdrew its generator deactivation notice for these units.” The NYPA gas-fired peaker plants are also assumed unavailable after 2030. The Q3 STAR quantifies the implications of that second assumption. If the NYPA plants remain available, or are replaced, the New York City and Lower Hudson Valley needs would each begin a year later, and the 2036 deficiencies would be roughly 400 MW smaller in the Lower Hudson Valley and 350 MW smaller in New York City.

Looking Ahead

The 2026 RNA is targeted for completion in November. For each of the three needs it identifies, the draft designates Responsible Transmission Owners to submit regulated backstop solutions, which may be triggered if sufficient market-based solutions do not materialize.

Read together, the two reports describe a system that meets its reliability criteria through 2031 and falls short beginning in 2032. The Q3 STAR qualifies the near-term result carefully. Margins remain sufficient but continue to narrow, and the NYISO notes that additional generator deactivations, reduced imports, higher-than-forecast demand, or delays to planned projects could each produce new needs in a future assessment. Our next blog will follow up with a closer look at what these findings may mean for the NYISO markets.

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