2026 NYISO Gold Book: Tighter Margins as the System Leans on Retained Retirements

On April 29, the New York Independent System Operator (NYISO) released its annual Load and Capacity Data Report for 2026, more commonly known as the Gold Book. The 2026 Gold Book is the NYISO's most comprehensive snapshot of where New York's grid stands today and where it is projected to go, with forecasts looking out as far as the next thirty years. It compiles the latest load forecasts, the inventory of existing and proposed generation, the deactivation pipeline, large load interconnection requests, and the major transmission projects under development. For wholesale market participants, it is one of the most important reference documents that the NYISO publishes each year.

The headline this year is straightforward. Load growth assumptions have been revised down, but reliability margins are still tightening. The system is leaning on aging units that have already filed to retire, and that posture is shaping the capacity market and the reliability outlook through the end of the year. 

Key Takeaways 

Load growth assumptions are lower. The 30-year average annual growth rate for baseline energy usage was revised from 2.0% to 1.1%, and winter peak demand growth, which is the variable most sensitive to electrification policy, was nearly halved. The NYISO attributes the update to refined assumptions around the pace of electric vehicle and building electrification adoption. Hydrogen production via electrolysis was removed from the forecasts altogether. 

Existing capacity margins are contracting. For the first time in recent memory, the Gold Book reports a year-over-year decline in existing NYCA generating capability. When the additional deactivations expected before summer 2026 are layered in, total NYCA generating capability for the upcoming summer is roughly 1,271 MW lower than what was reported in the 2025 Gold Book. Special Case Resource (SCR) enrollment has also dropped meaningfully, from 1,487 MW in summer 2025 to 927 MW in summer 2026, a roughly 38% decline. 

The deactivation pipeline has grown dramatically. Table IV-5, which lists generators that have submitted formal notices of proposed deactivation, has grown from 48 MW of summer capability in the 2025 Gold Book to 1,307 MW in the 2026 Gold Book. The pipeline now includes the four Danskammer units in Zone G, Astoria Generating Company's Gowanus 2 and 3 and Narrows 1 and 2 fleets in Zone J, and the Pinelawn and Far Rockaway units in Zone K. 

Most of those units are being retained. Several of these notices have since been addressed through the Short-Term Reliability Process Report for Q3 2025, released on April 15. Gowanus 2 and 3 and Narrows 1 and 2 are being retained through May 1, 2029 under the maximum extension allowed by the DEC Peaker Rule, and AlphaGen has withdrawn the deactivation notices. Hull St. Energy withdrew its deactivation notices for Far Rockaway GT1 and GT2 effective May 1, 2026, with the units retained under a LIPA capacity purchase agreement. The Danskammer deactivation is contingent on the August 1, 2026 in-service of identified solutions. 

What This Means 

Even with slower forecasted load growth, the NYISO is managing reliability through this period by relying on units that have already announced an intent to retire. Margins are narrow, and they are being held by an aging fleet whose continued service is the result of reliability process intervention, not market signals. The reliability picture in New York City and Long Island remains driven by transmission security needs, and those needs are not solved by lower forecasted load. 

For market participants, that means capacity prices are likely to stay elevated, particularly in Zones J and K, for as long as the system depends on retained units. The STRP, not the deactivation notice itself, is now the determining process for whether and when a unit actually leaves the system, and STRP outcomes are the leading indicator for where capacity value sits. The summer reliability picture is also more fragile than the lower load forecast suggests, with the operating performance of aging retained units and CHPE's in-service date as the variables most likely to move it. 

Regulatory and investment signals are pointing in the same direction. The CLCPA compliance pathway is being recalibrated against near-term reliability needs. Governor Hochul's announced budget agreement on May 7 makes that recalibration explicit, with proposed adjustments that move the deadline for releasing emissions reduction regulations from 2030 to 2028 and establish a new interim target of a 60% emissions reduction by 2040, while keeping the 2050 endpoint intact. The retention of fossil units, the inclusion of natural gas in the proposed queue, and the contraction of the renewable queue all suggest that new dispatchable investment will need to be part of the picture. Whether the current market and policy structure delivers it is the open question. 

The Data Center Question 

The Large Load Forecast in Table I-14 was adjusted in two directions. Near-term values were lowered. The 2026 summer NYCA large load impact moved from 1,023 MW in last year's Gold Book to 538 MW in this year's, and the 2027 value moved from 1,329 MW to 1,075 MW. Long-term values were raised. The 2040 large load impact moved from 2,585 MW to 2,880 MW. 

More importantly, Table IV-7 (Load Interconnection Requests) now totals over 12,000 MW of summer load capacity in the queue. That number has grown substantially with the addition of multiple gigawatt-scale data center projects, particularly in upstate zones, with the largest concentrations in Zones D, E, and H. Not every project in the queue will get built. Even partial follow-through would meaningfully change the resource adequacy picture in upstate zones that have historically been long on capacity. 

On the other side is the ongoing performance of the aging resources being kept in service through the STAR and STRP processes. Both pressures point in the same direction. The system needs more dispatchable capacity, and it needs the existing fleet to perform reliably while that capacity is being procured and built. 

The Proposed Queue and Offshore Wind 

The 2026 Gold Book includes natural gas and oil capacity in the proposed generation totals alongside the renewable and storage projects in the queue. The inclusion reflects the system's reliability needs, but being in the queue is not the story. Whether these projects move forward will depend on how policymakers and regulators respond to the reliability case being made. 

The natural gas total reflects two CRIS-only requests at existing facilities: a request from GB II New York LLC at Albany Steam, with a proposed 2026 in-service date, and a Freshkills 138 kV CRIS-only request from Arthur Kill Power LLC that is already in service. The oil entry is a CRIS request from National Grid Generation at West Babylon, which is also already in service. 

On the renewable side, the proposed queue is smaller than it was a year ago. Land-based wind moved from 4,169 MW to 2,618 MW. Offshore wind moved from 7,029 MW to 5,649 MW. Grid-connected solar moved from 10,440 MW to 6,774 MW. Energy storage moved from 24,396 MW to 11,878 MW. 

Empire Wind 1 and Sunrise Wind both show revised in-service dates in the 2026 Gold Book, with both projects now showing summer 2027 dates. Both projects experienced construction pauses in late 2025 following federal Bureau of Ocean Energy Management orders, with construction subsequentlyresuming under preliminary injunctions. 

Looking to Summer 

Two items are worth watching as we move into the summer season. First, the general performance of the aging fleet, particularly the units retainedthrough the most recent STRP. Second, the Champlain Hudson Power Express (CHPE) project, which is reflected in the Gold Book with an expected Q2 2026 in-service date. CHPE coming online as scheduled would be a near-term contribution to summer reliability in New York City and is one of the more important assumptions baked into the current outlook. 

Propel NY, the joint NYPA and New York Transco project selected by the NYISO Board to meet the Long Island Offshore Wind Export Public Policy Transmission Need, is now reflected with an in-service date of May 2030. The project will play a central role in unlocking the Long Island reliability picture once it comes online. The Smart Path Connect Project (SPCP) is partially in service, with the remaining work scheduled for 2026. 

The Bottom Line 

Reliability is being maintained through a combination of retained retirements, transmission projects approaching service, and an interconnection queue that has yet to deliver. The margin for error is thin. A more durable reliability picture would require new dispatchable capacity, additionaltransmission, and a market structure that supports both, but whether that investment materializes remains an open question. For now, the system is operating on what it has, and what it has is being asked to do more. 

Luminary will continue to track the implications of the 2026 Gold Book through the upcoming Potomac Economics State of the Market Report, the NYISO's 2026 Reliability Outlook, the 2026 RNA, and the next round of STAR reports. Reach out to our team with questions about how these developments affect your position in NYISO markets. 

About Luminary Energy 

Luminary Energy provides independent analysis and strategic insights on energy markets across NYISO and ISO New England. Our team specializes in translating complex market dynamics, regulatory developments, and reliability assessments into actionable intelligence for market participants, policymakers, and industry stakeholders. 

We help clients navigate the evolving landscape of wholesale electricity markets with focused expertise in resource adequacy, capacity markets, transmission planning, renewable integration, and energy policy. Whether you need to understand how reliability needs impact market opportunities, assess the implications of regulatory changes, or develop informed strategies for market participation, Luminary Energy delivers the clarity and depth of analysis you need. 

To learn more about Luminary Energy's services or to connect with a member of our team, contact us at contact@luminary.energy.